9/21/2026
Good morning, well we thought it would be a busy September but the last three weeks have beaten all expectations thanks to a phenomenal amount of supply. By our count, it’s over €11bn in placed issuance in the four weeks since SocGen’s Red & Black Italy 4 priced on August 21. €19bn if you include CLOs.
So before we even start thinking about oil prices, central bank base rates, and other worrying news stories, it’s not really a surprise to see investors push back a touch on pricing.
But before we get onto last week’s action, I am delighted to announce that the inaugural Concept ABS Awards is taking place in November. The event, in partnership with European Data Warehouse, is on November 12 in London.
There’s no entry process or pitching. If you were part of a deal that’s in the public European ABS market (ie - your deal is on Concept ABS) you’re in consideration. There’s no voting either. Data & market commentary is what makes Concept ABS great. And that’s what we’ll be using to select the winners.
Attendance for the Concept ABS Awards Night is by invitation only. Spaces are extremely limited, but if you’re interested in learning about the selection process, the awards up for grabs and more, you can visit this page here for more information.
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Bumper BE Green 2026-1, the first public Belgian auto for the best part of 5 years found investor interest easy to come by. It was no doubt aided by the fact it was the market’s first publicly placed fully electric vehicle-backed auto lease ABS. It meant that any accounts with green mandates would be queuing up. And so they did, with Bumper able to price in line with recent French autos and steal a last-minute upsize.
Elsewhere, it was a bit more of a slog. Investors are engaged, of that there can be no doubt. But the scale of supply means they are not quite as willing to ignore things like an irregular issuer or oil prices being above $100bbl.
The €506m Jubilee Place 10, the latest Dutch BTL RMBS was only able to price 5bps wide of the prior Dutch BTL trade. Similarly, Bank11’s €500m German Auto, RevoCar 2026-2, finished 8bps wide of Red & Black Germany from a couple of weeks ago.
None of this is some sort of harbinger of doom for the market. It’s just a clear signal that sellers no longer have things totally their own way. You could argue that it’s good and healthy for the market. Repeat issuers with strong track records are rewarded with a few bps shaved off, while first timers or those with patchy coverage cannot waltz in every couple of years like nothing happened.
As for this week, well there's now six deals in the pipeline - but the pace does feel a touch slower. It's a bit of a breather, nothing more.
Ayvens (Axus NV) has brought only its second Belgian auto lease ABS – and its first Green deal. Offering a single triple-A tranche, the deal has contributed to no fewer than sixteen ex-CLO deals sold in both Euros & Sterling over the past fortnight – unprecedented for the best part of 20 years. Meanwhile, the bid remains well supported across asset classes and ratings.
However, investors can't be taken for granted. With so much to choose from (YTD Euro primary sales setting a post-GFC record), they have become assertive while remaining engaged. Furthermore, there has been a wall of auto collateral over the past four years. Of course, Ayvens would have hoped to stand out from the crowd with its inaugural green transaction...click here to read the full overview on Concept ABS.
With placement hitting €80bn YTD and the first two weeks of September set to deliver no fewer than 16 ex-CLO new issues in both Sterling & Euros, post-GFC records are tumbling. Auto collateral is front and centre with five deals pricing (before this week) since the post-summer reopening. Indeed, total combined auto placement of E90bn over the past four years is unprecedented.
Meanwhile, investors are engaged and the market is healthy, but record supply means that accounts are becoming much more assertive and discerning. With the sell-off in US Treasuries continuing apace (10yr yields breaching 5%, its highest since 2007), the contagion spreading to bond markets elsewhere, and Brent crude hitting $109 / barrel by the end of last week, nothing can be taken for granted.
In addition, Ayvens was marketing some very rare collateral, this being the first Belgian auto ABS since 2021, and the European market's first publicly placed fully electric vehicle-backed auto lease ABS. On the one hand, the leads might have expected a small premium with green accounts queuing up for it. But with no direct comparable for so long in such a busy period, the leads would need to be cautious of getting themselves lost in the crowd...click here to read the full Market Context on Concept ABS.
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