4/13/2026
Well, we don’t quite have peace but there is more hope that the Strait of Hormuz can re-open than there was just a couple of weeks ago, despite the failure of talks in Pakistan between the US and Iran. Brent Crude is still swinging, but in the 90s to low 100s, not above $110. There’s at least signs of progress.
As we’ve said in this newsletter (and Concept ABS) a lot in recent weeks, much of the ABS impact is more technical than geopolitical. However, with a shorter, quieter week where no publicly offered deals were priced, I spent a bit of time using the Concept ABS database looking into the geopolitical impact in more detail.
On the one hand, we have the strong sense that it’s been a really busy Q1 so investors are to some degree just a bit full. And while a cynic might say that investors have been opportunistic in their desire to drive a hard bargain post-Iran war beginning, it’s clear that appetite has slowed significantly.
Since war began in the morning of February 28th, there have been 14 fully marketed European ABS deals. So, I compared the fully marketed 14 deals before February 28th in terms of their unfulfilled demand to explore whether that could provide a simple, albeit rough illustration of investor appetite.
Of course, there are bound to be inconsistencies with this approach. Some deals have lots of tranches, some asset classes have fared better than others and it’s not a totally even split. Nevertheless, the difference is stark.
Of the 14 post-Iran deals, total unfulfilled demand was around €7.1bn. Of the 14 prior to the conflict, total demand was €11.9bn. On a per deal average basis, that means €506m unfulfilled versus €780m.
In simple terms, nearly €4bn extra capital was sloshing about for leads to grind to investors tighter before war broke out, according to Concept ABS data.It’s unsurprising then to see that spreads have widened out by at least 5-10bps.
You can see that here with the graph below showing all Auto ABS deals in 2026 in euros, steadily widening out.
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As for this week, well the positive sign is that the Easter breather looks to be ending with a couple of marketed deals launched last week and Silver Arrow this morning. On top of that of course, the presence of a ceasefire between the US, Israel & Iran means there could be less market volatility and execution risk to deal with.
Well, after Arsenal’s disastrous display against Bournemouth on Saturday and Rory McIlroy’s 6-shot lead turning into a tie for the lead at The Masters, it was getting close to an absolute horror show of a sporting weekend for me.
Rory clearly has the same “bottle” gene as my beloved Arsenal players, but thankfully he stepped up to win the coveted Green Jacket once again, becoming only the fourth man ever to retain their title at Augusta.
I recommend watching the Amazon Prime documentary on his 2025 Masters win, particularly if you’re interesting in understanding how I felt as nerves got the better of me in my golfing final last summer. Quite comforting to know that even the most talented athletes of our time can experience the same crushing sense of panic and devastation when the pressure is on! Shame I don't share his talent.
Have a great week,
Tom
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