8/10/2026
Good morning, I hope you’re all enjoying the summer of endless heat. There are hosepipe bans across huge swathes of the UK and while the scorching temperatures proved to be fertile ground for ABS, the drought has now extended into the market with the summer holidays in full swing.
This very much expected breather gives us a moment to reflect on the year so far. So, for the second time, the Freshly Squeezed Newsletter becomes a H1 Report Card.
Before we get to that, last week’s fare was pretty barren with just a few CLOs pricing and one CMBS from Brookfield, which was entirely pre-placed. There’s another CMBS in the pipeline too, but no indication whether it will price this week.
A word on the data below: It runs from Jan 1st 2026 to June 30th 2026 as adding in July data would unnecessarily complicate proceedings. All the data is from Concept ABS – so, if you’re a reader but not a subscriber and you want this sort of power at your fingertips, click here to sign up for a free trial.
2024 and 2025 were both record breaking years for issuance volume post-GFC, and 2026 is set to be the biggest yet. In terms of pure volume, the first table shows that 2026 is likely to be the first 6-month period where over €100bn (equivalent) has been placed with investors – although it includes all varieties of CLOs, refi’s and resets.
The second table shows that when excluding all CLOs, placed volume is already tracking well ahead of the two preceding record years with €58.5bn placed across euros and sterling, nearly €18bn more than in 2025 H1 and almost €11bn more than in 2024. It’s made all the more remarkable by soaring oil prices as the war in Iran began at the end of February (and remains ongoing).
At current pace, the market is set to comfortably cross the €100bn barrier for placed ABS issuance for the first time since the crisis.
As for the arranging banks, BNP Paribas dominate the euro market once again, while Lloyds Bank is way out in front when it comes to the UK market with 21.2% market share across 24 deals. However, such is BNP Paribas’ power in CLOs, when you remove that asset class they drop down to #2 in the rankings, just behind Santander.
Meanwhile, SocGen and ING rise significantly, owing to the fact that all of their business is in ABS. It’s great to see via the likes of ING, SocGen, ABN Amro and Credit Agricole that you can make meaningful headway in the market without being a massive US Bank or longstanding feature of the ABS market, with some solid strategic decisions baked in over a couple of years.
In the below graphs, we can see that the Iran war did have an impact in the early days and weeks of the conflict. However, it has so far been little more than a bump in the road. There was certainly a period where demand cooled and the triple-A’s in particular, were much harder to price – with coverage often barely above 1x. But once the floodgates were re-opened by Mercedes’ stunning German Auto ABS, Silver Arrow SA Compartment 21 on April 17th, the market snapped back into its now familiar furious pace.
The first graph shows AAA prints for the year in German Autos, UK Prime RMBS, CLOs and Euro Consumer. And in essence, nothing much happens.
The second graph shows Euro CLOs rated A, BBB and BB – a handy comparative tool because you are comparing like with like on CLOs much more than you are for say UK BTL RMBS where there can be significant differences within the collateral from each issuer.
With so much issuance this year already, you may have thought that some issuers could be front-loading with the expectation that funding becomes materially harder from September onwards. However, everyone we’ve spoken to in the last few weeks is expecting an incredibly busy few months once the summer holidays are over.
Barring some truly massive geopolitical developments, it’s hard to imagine that 2026 won’t be another big year for ABS. We’re currently expecting something around the €110bn-€120bn mark for ABS issuance (excl. CLOs) – a total that would smash last year’s figure of €90.3bn.
As for spreads, major tightening seems unlikely as it looks like a market floor has been found. Maybe we’ll see some gentle widening, but it really could keep chugging along at least until the new year.
Why is this happening? Well, the regulations haven’t changed much yet but the growth of private markets in credit probably mean that it’s now a bit easier for various types of investors to dip their toes into public ABS than it has been. Regulations haven’t yet changed but maybe some institutions are taking a longer term strategic approach of being embedded in the market now for when those reforms help boost the market further still.
It’s also easy to forget that for many issuers, this is the only capital market they really have access to, thanks to the unique qualities of funding via securitization, rather than taking on much more expensive high-yield or private credit debt.
Finally, we are now most certainly in a cycle where interest rates will not return to sub 1% anytime soon. Indeed, many have argued that it’s the first 20-odd years of the 21st century which are the aberration, not now. But with rates higher and more uncertain, a floating rate product can be a useful hedge in a sea of fixed rate bonds.
All of those factors are set to continue. So, any bets against ABS in the next 6 months would be brave, to say the least.
© 2026 ARC Risk Models Limited
