8/17/2026
It’s the quiet before the storm in European ABS at the moment. Nothing was priced last week outside of CLOs. Indeed, the last properly offered trade was Aira Force 2026-1 way back on July 23rd.The market has certainly deserved a breather with such frantic pace to proceedings up until now this year.
However, that break is set to end to soon – sooner than planned too, as every single active arranging bank we’ve heard from is getting ready for a very busy September.
So much so that September is probably starting early. Our expectation is that deals we start pricing from week commencing 24th August. To add weight to this thesis, an Italian Auto ABS from SocGen has just begun marketing, aiming to price next week.
Clearly, execution risk is the major issue arrangers and JLMs will be thinking about as we approach the start of a busy season. While the market has gone from strength to strength in recent years with European ABS now set for its third straight record year for issuance, the investor base hasn’t become dramatically larger.
It’s likely bigger – with more investors in the game. But the biggest change is that the incumbents have more capital at their disposal.
And while regulatory changes to make investing less burdensome are underway, they are not fully formed. It still takes a long time to do your due diligence. I remember an old investor friend walking me through a 20-page A4 report an analyst had to make before the firm even decided whether they wanted to buy it or not.
This is why being a regular presence in the market makes your life easier. Investors know what they’re going to get when they look at a VCL for the umpteenth time. They will have far fewer questions and so things can get done far quicker.
However, this raises questions for the smaller players. If the market is going great guns and we’ve got record Auto, Consumer and RMBS issuance in the big traditional ABS regions, what happens to the more esoteric paper or the less familiar ABS countries?
It could be a case of “a rising tide lifts all boats” (to quote JFK), where greater issuance breeds greater liquidity in the market more generally and the Portuguese consumer or the slightly unusual buy-now-pay-later deals feel emboldened to start regularly hitting public screens.
The data from the last few years certainly suggests that is possible. On a YTD basis, esoteric asset classes (anything that is not CLOs, Auto ABS, Consumer ABS or Prime & BTL RMBS) have done better than the preceding three years, according to Concept ABS.
And similarly, the less established regions have also had a comparatively strong year so far.
If the market is hectic in the coming months, where we see similar volumes in Autos, Consumer and Prime RMBS across Q3 and Q4 as we did in 2025, that would mean there’s over €22bn in the euro markets still to be placed and potentially around another £5bn in sterling from the major asset classes.
Will there still be space and time for the smaller regions and less programmatic issuers and asset classes?
So far, the answer seems to be yes. But whether it remains the case in the Autumn months will be an interesting development to keep an eye on as the year progresses.
© 2026 ARC Risk Models Limited
