4/7/2026
Good morning, hope you had a nice long weekend (and maybe some chocolate too). I am writing the Freshly Squeezed Newsletter for the first time as a part of the Concept ABS team, which I’m naturally very excited about!
It’s taken a very long time to get this over the line, but I’m confident that the partnership means we can improve the platform subscribers know and love, while those without a subscription get to experience what all the fuss has been about for touching 20 years, starting with this newsletter.
For more information, please read the press release, here. And to register your interest in a free trial, click here or just send me a line at tom@conceptabs.co.uk.
But enough about me, this was an expectedly quiet week, regardless of war in Iran. A shortened week thanks to the Easter holidays, and a record amount of Q1 supply made that inevitable. We did however, see one marketed trade from French bank Socram as they hit screens for the first time in two years with its TitriSocram Auto ABS programme.
It’s undoubtedly a tough time to be in the market, and it’s probably hardest for auto issuers due to the sheer glut of supply that has been absorbed for a solid 18 months. The war in Iran means investors are more cautious but the driving factor is the supply.
To give some context, Socram’s leads were only able to tighten 1bps from IPTs to 69bps over 3-month Euribor, but before war in Iran broke out, FT Auto ABS Spanish Loans 2026-1 from Stellantis started at 70a and tightened to 60bps on its triple-As. In large part, that was down to tremendous oversubscription it received.
The triple-As were 4.2x covered, meaning a cover surplus of €1.3bn! Socram simply didn’t have that luxury with the books just 1.3x covered creating a surplus of €126m.
I should add that it has been for well over a year now that investors have bemoaned the spreads across ABS. Some widening has probably been overdue for a while.
Below is the overview from Concept ABS on Titrisocram 2026.
And as for this week, it could be an important barometer of where the market is. Yes, there’s geopolitical uncertainty and volatility looming, but post-Easter deal flow is normally strong. We’ll have a better sense of where things are once the week is out.
Socram Banque, the French lender owned by seven mutual insurers, returned to the ABS market for the first time since April 2024 with its latest edition from the TitriSocram auto ABS programme, adding to a record post-GFC Q1 placement of Euro denominated auto assets.
However, Socram's return has come at a testing time for European ABS with the market roughly wider at the top of the stack for conservative collateral than it was before the US & Israel's war with Iran began at the end of February. Quite apart from war jitters, Socram encountered a market that was starting to creak under the weight of record Q1 ex-CLO supply – not to mention three years of historically significant auto issuance. IPTs reflected this new reality with... read the full detail on Concept ABS.
As the US-Israel-Iran war continues to escalate unnervingly, the wider markets are struggling to contain their panic. With Brent crude back up around $110, the normally parochial ABS market looks to be softening in sympathy. Certainly, Euro primary spreads feel less secure than at the start of the year and are now roughly 10bps wider for triple-A paper in the mainstream assets classes than when the war began. However, much of the explanation for this is somewhat more mundane (for want of a better word). Q1 placement hit over E16bn ex-CLO - smashing the previous post-GFC record of E11bn set in 2018, while euro denominated autos raced past E5bn for the first time in Q1 post-GFC too. This comes on the heels of a record post-GFC year in 2025 (over E108bn placed, E56.25bn ex-CLO). It is little wonder that accounts are displaying signs of weariness compared to the bullish early weeks and months of 2026, not unreasonably anticipating more supply to come.
Taking that all into consideration means that leads must adapt to the new reality – investors are still ready and able to deploy, but at wider levels and in slightly smaller amounts. Pragmatic IPTs were deployed accordingly, offering as much as 14bps pickup versus the most recent French auto from Cars Alliance back in August-2025 and 12bps versus the last TitriSocram... read the full detail on Concept ABS.
That’s all from me this week. I had a slight delay with special episode of the Freshly Squeezed Podcast, but that is now due to arrive this Wednesday with some great guests from the Dutch market.
Thanks to the long weekend, I was finally able to devote a couple of days to golf. I had a bogey-free first 7 holes one day to get me to 1-under par – with nothing in my head having not played for so long, I seem to do better. Which suggests that my mind is the major barrier to any golfing success… once that returned so did the mistakes.
And last but not least, it’s been such a relief to finally be able to work on Concept ABS. My personal journey to learning about the business actually started when I was still a journalist. I was talking to contacts about how to make my coverage better and every banker kept saying: “Well, what you do is nice, but I literally could not do my job without Concept ABS”.
Having never heard of Concept ABS, I couldn’t quite believe it. But now after many months getting to know co-founder (and now CEO) Matt DeBergolis, I realise why it’s such a key resource to European and Australian structured finance markets. So, if you’re interested in seeing for yourself why it’s trusted by every active syndicated desk in the market, sign up for a trial here.
Have a great week,
Tom
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